OPINION: Trump's Win in South Carolina Is a Warning Not a Triumph

[Timber Rattler]

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/02/26/trumps-win-in-south-carolina-is-a-warning-not-a-triumph-n2170567

Donald Trump won the South Carolina GOP primary Saturday night, defeating former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley by 20 points.

A lot of the commentary on the right is triumphalist. Trump convincingly beating a popular former governor on her home turf is an accomplishment.

But this kind of talk is nothing more than cheerleading with a dose of whistling past the graveyard tossed in.

This is why I think air raid sirens should be going off inside the Republican Party at all levels rather than a vigorous round of self-congratulation.

More Votes Were Cast Than In 2016

Last night, about 755,800 votes were cast in the Republican primary. That is up from 737,900 in 2016. Why this is significant is that the 2016 primary was hotly contested, and the 2024 primary was essentially a pro forma affair where the winner was known in advance. By comparison, 539,300 Democrat votes were cast in the contested 2020 Democrat primary but only 131,500 in 2024.

Something brought extra people to the polls. I'm sure some will argue that some showed up to show their support of Trump. Being an "open primary" state, South Carolina muddies the water, and some claim that the Haley vote was Democrats she recruited. Some of that may be true, but the bigger question is why Democrats would show up to vote for Haley when polls indicate she is a much stronger general election candidate than Trump. I'd suggest that a lot of people, particularly Republicans, who didn't support Trump showed up to send a message.

(snip)

Trump Lost Metropolitan and Suburban Areas "Bigly"

The most ominous message last night was that Trump got beaten like a rented mule in metropolitan and suburban areas.



About 80 percent of the US population lives in metropolitan or suburban areas. Trump lost those areas in South Carolina in a big way. That calls into question Trump's ability to appeal to those voters in sufficient numbers to carry swing states.

EXCERPT.

Be sure to read the whole piece...it's worth considering.

[kevindavis007]

That is the elephant in the room (no pun intended). A lot of conservatives had said we don't need those votes. They are wrong, when you alienate a percentage of the voting bloc, you are not going to win a general election.

[DefiantMassRINO]

For a healthy political system, both parties need to compete among all constituencies.

Otherwise, the GOP will become the Hee-Haw Party, and the Dems will become the Diff'rent Strokes Party.  Neither outcome is healthy for the nation, as a whole.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Lots of good points in that article.  The one about surrounding himself with "garbage people" is one of them.   If online "influencers" are supported/assisted/endorsed by the campaign, then the campaign and ultimately Trump himself are responsible for what they say.

The other part where I though they hit the nail on the head was:

There is no sign that the GOP is starting to coalesce around Trump's candidacy because there is no sign that the Trump campaign wants that support.

The key element missing from Trump's campaign is any hint that it recognizes that he needs the support of voters who are not Trump loyalists to win...

[libertybele]

For a healthy political system, both parties need to compete among all constituencies.

Otherwise, the GOP will become the Hee-Haw Party, and the Dems will become the Diff'rent Strokes Party.  Neither outcome is healthy for the nation, as a whole.

Our political system, especially the DOJ is in absolute utter chaos.

[LMAO]

That is the elephant in the room (no pun intended). A lot of conservatives had said we don't need those votes. They are wrong, when you alienate a percentage of the voting bloc, you are not going to win a general election.

We saw some of that here where a couple of his supporters thought that the traditional conservative GOP base would be replaced by either so called Blue Dog Democrats, minorities, and/or independents

Extremely wrong. Now Trump and his MAGA base  can reap the rewards of their strategy

[LMAO]

From the article….

Trump Lost Metropolitan and Suburban Areas "Bigly"

The most ominous message last night was that Trump got beaten like a rented mule in metropolitan and suburban areas.

Very bad news for Trump.  If this is repeated in other swing states, Trump is going to lose badly. The rural areas won’t be enough to overcome the advantage Democrats have in the urban areas. Without the suburbs, no way Trump wins

Trump just lost South Carolina in the general

[Maj. Bill Martin]

That is the elephant in the room (no pun intended). A lot of conservatives had said we don't need those votes. They are wrong, when you alienate a percentage of the voting bloc, you are not going to win a general election.

The current state of our political thought looks a lot more like the French Revolution than like the American.  Absolutism, a refusal to recognize the need to compromise on anything, and viewing everyone who isn't part.of your particular faction as the enemy.

Trump makes a passable stand-in for Danton.

[catfish1957]

From the article….

Trump Lost Metropolitan and Suburban Areas "Bigly"

The most ominous message last night was that Trump got beaten like a rented mule in metropolitan and suburban areas.

Very bad news for Trump.  If this is repeated in other swing states, Trump is going to lose badly. The rural areas won’t be enough to overcome the advantage Democrats have in the urban areas. Without the suburbs, no way Trump wins

Trump just lost South Carolina in the general

And also, has anyything really changed around the integrity of the actual electoral process since '20?

I expect phantom water line breaks, late found ballots, and all kind of chicaney X10 this November.  I think that since the  dims got away with it last time, they'll be additionall embolden.

[kevindavis007]

We saw some of that here where a couple of his supporters thought that the traditional conservative GOP base would be replaced by either so called Blue Dog Democrats, minorities, and/or independents

Extremely wrong. Now Trump and his MAGA base  can reap the rewards of their strategy

The reality is this:


Blue Dog Democrats are gone
There is no way in heck minorities are going to support Trump since Trump surrounds himself with the likes of Charlie Kirk
The independent voting bloc is becoming a majority in the country.

[libertybele]

The reality is this:


Blue Dog Democrats are gone
There is no way in heck minorities are going to support Trump since Trump surrounds himself with the likes of Charlie Kirk
The independent voting bloc is becoming a majority in the country.

Minorities? Whites are becoming the minority, with Hispanics soon taking over and Blacks in 3rd place as far as population. 

Stats clearly show that Hispanics and Blacks voted for Biden. My hunch is that ILLEGALS will be granted amnesty and voting rights before the '24 election.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1184425/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-ethnicity-us/

[massadvj]

I have said it before and I will say it again: if you can't win the primary, then you can't win the general election, either. That is why we have primaries.

If Republicans are going to be angry with anybody at this point, it's Nikki Haley. She should be bowing out, having lost her home state by 20 points. Yes, Trump has an unban/suburban problem, along with a plethora of other problems. He and the party need to get to work, and Haley staying in the race is counter-productive.

As Donald Rumsfeld said, you don't go to war with the army you wish you had, you go to war with the army you have. Trump is the army we have. So saddle up.

[kevindavis007]

I have said it before and I will say it again: if you can't win the primary, then you can't win the general election, either. That is why we have primaries.

If Republicans are going to be angry with anybody at this point, it's Nikki Haley. She should be bowing out, having lost her home state by 20 points. Yes, Trump has an unban/suburban problem, along with a plethora of other problems. He and the party need to get to work, and Haley staying in the race is counter-productive.

As Donald Rumsfeld said, you don't go to war with the army you wish you had, you go to war with the army you have. Trump is the army we have. So saddle up.

Sorry Trump doesn't want my vote so why should I vote for him if he doesn't want my vote?

[massadvj]

Sorry Trump doesn't want my vote so why should I vote for him if he doesn't want my vote?

It has nothing to do with who wants your vote. Voting or not voting has consequences. Do what your conscious tells you. I am certainly not campaigning for the guy. My perspective is as a Republican, not a Trump supporter.

[libertybele]

It has nothing to do with who wants your vote. Voting or not voting has consequences. Do what your conscious tells you. I am certainly not campaigning for the guy. My perspective is as a Republican, not a Trump supporter.

Good answer. 

[mystery-ak]

I have said it before and I will say it again: if you can't win the primary, then you can't win the general election, either. That is why we have primaries.

If Republicans are going to be angry with anybody at this point, it's Nikki Haley. She should be bowing out, having lost her home state by 20 points. Yes, Trump has an unban/suburban problem, along with a plethora of other problems. He and the party need to get to work, and Haley staying in the race is counter-productive.

As Donald Rumsfeld said, you don't go to war with the army you wish you had, you go to war with the army you have. Trump is the army we have. So saddle up.

It has nothing to do with who wants your vote. Voting or not voting has consequences. Do what your conscious tells you. I am certainly not campaigning for the guy. My perspective is as a Republican, not a Trump supporter.

Well said...

[roamer_1]

It has nothing to do with who wants your vote. Voting or not voting has consequences. Do what your conscious tells you. I am certainly not campaigning for the guy. My perspective is as a Republican, not a Trump supporter.

f course it does. If they wanted my vote, they would cater to me, and prove their worth.

My perspective is as an ex-Republican of many decades.
If I wanted what they offer now, I'd be a Democrat..

[LMAO]

I will not be voting for Trump this year. May either leave that part blank or do a write in.

I’m not going to criticize anybody who chooses to vote for Donald Trump. Their vote is their business. Just like it is mine.

The Republican party is gonna have to decide what kind of party it wants to be after 2024. The MAGA thing isn’t doing very well. But that should not be a license to go back to the George W. Bush era, either

[libertybele]

f course it does. If they wanted my vote, they would cater to me, and prove their worth.

My perspective is as an ex-Republican of many decades.
If I wanted what they offer now, I'd be a Democrat..

As @massadvj said voting or not voting does have consequences.  Free and fair elections comes to mind; who knows these days?  They need to go back to only voting on election day, no mail in ballots except with a validated reason, and go back to paper ballots.  The biggest emphasis I think being voting on election day only, this two week/early voting crappola leaves too much room for cheating.

[mystery-ak]

I will not be voting for Trump this year. May either leave that part blank or do a write in.

I’m not going to criticize anybody who chooses to vote for Donald Trump. Their vote is their business. Just like it is mine.

The Republican party is gonna have to decide what kind of party it wants to be after 2024. The MAGA thing isn’t doing very well. But that should not be a license to go back to the George W. Bush era, either

Another excellent post...

[libertybele]

I will not be voting for Trump this year. May either leave that part blank or do a write in.

I’m not going to criticize anybody who chooses to vote for Donald Trump. Their vote is their business. Just like it is mine.

The Republican party is gonna have to decide what kind of party it wants to be after 2024. The MAGA thing isn’t doing very well. But that should not be a license to go back to the George W. Bush era, either

Unless the GOP goes back to conservative principles upon which this country was founded and uphold the Constitution the party offers absolutely nothing. They either send a clear message of conservatism or we will very soon see socialism.

[roamer_1]

As @massadvj said voting or not voting does have consequences.

No, it really don't. The ONLY government that won't pull these antics is a small government in fear of their constituents. That small government is not on the docket, so nothing will change. At best the Republicans are a placeholder, preserving the government the Democrats need when they tke it back over... Tumpy included.

I won't vote for that. A difference measured in increment.

[kevindavis007]

It has nothing to do with who wants your vote. Voting or not voting has consequences. Do what your conscious tells you. I am certainly not campaigning for the guy. My perspective is as a Republican, not a Trump supporter.

Until the GOP that I supported (Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II), I'm not voting for the current crap GOP that has been infested by MAGA.

[libertybele]

Until the GOP that I supported (Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II), I'm not voting for the current crap GOP that has been infested by MAGA.

Well, I beg to differ, Bush I and Bush II were not conservatives.  Bush I drafted NAFTA which was horrible for this country, and Bush II sold us down the river.  Reagan had his own issues with amnesty; I don't view granting amnesty to ILLEGALS as conservative. (Here come the pitchforks and flaming arrows).

It is ridiculous that the United States of America continues to allow an invasion of its country and leaves its borders unsecured!

[libertybele]

No, it really don't. The ONLY government that won't pull these antics is a small government in fear of their constituents. That small government is not on the docket, so nothing will change. At best the Republicans are a placeholder, preserving the government the Democrats need when they tke it back over... Tumpy included.

I won't vote for that. A difference measured in increment.

Voting down ballot for conservatives so far continues to be my plan.